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Nonparametric estimation of time-varying network connections by multi-stage smoothing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time-varying networks arise in a variety of ubiquitous applications, such as functional brain connectivity [Thompson et al., 2017, Zhang et al., 2020], gene and genomic regulatory processes [Zhang and Cao, 2017, Bartlett et al., 2021], and social or economic environments [Snijders et al., 2010, Kolar et al., 2010]. In these contexts, measurements collected at different time points record how observed connections fluctuate, forming a sequence of network snapshots that reflect the temporal evolution of the underlying system. For example, fMRI studies yield time-indexed measurements of activity across brain regions, from which researchers construct connectivity networks that change over the scanning period [Bassett et al., 2011, Rubinov and Sporns, 2010]. Similarly, in political systems such as the U.S. Senate, legislative cosponsorship records give rise to network snapshots that naturally vary across sessions [Fowler, 2006, Kirkland and Gross, 2014]. General reviews of time-varying network analysis, including methodological developments and representative applications, are provided in Holme and Saram aki [2012] and Kim et al. [2018].


Iterative Connecting Probability Estimation for Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Estimating the probabilities of connections between vertices in a random network using an observed adjacency matrix is an important task for network data analysis. Many existing estimation methods are based on certain assumptions on network structure, which limit their applicability in practice. Without making strong assumptions, we develop an iterative connecting probability estimation method based on neighborhood averaging. Starting at a random initial point or an existing estimate, our method iteratively updates the pairwise vertex distances, the sets of similar vertices, and connecting probabilities to improve the precision of the estimate. We propose a two-stage neighborhood selection procedure to achieve the trade-off between smoothness of the estimate and the ability to discover local structure. The tuning parameters can be selected by cross-validation. We establish desirable theoretical properties for our method, and further justify its superior performance by comparing with existing methods in simulation and real data analysis.


Near-Optimal Smoothing of Structured Conditional Probability Matrices

Neural Information Processing Systems

Utilizing the structure of a probabilistic model can significantly increase its learning speed. Motivated by several recent applications, in particular bigram models in language processing, we consider learning low-rank conditional probability matrices under expected KL-risk. This choice makes smoothing, that is the careful handling of low-probability elements, paramount. We derive an iterative algorithm that extends classical non-negative matrix factorization to naturally incorporate additive smoothing and prove that it converges to the stationary points of a penalized empirical risk. We then derive sample-complexity bounds for the global minimzer of the penalized risk and show that it is within a small factor of the optimal sample complexity.


Finite-TimeAnalysisofRound-Robin Kullback-LeiblerUpperConfidenceBoundsfor OptimalAdaptiveAllocationwithMultiplePlaysand MarkovianRewards

Neural Information Processing Systems

Forouranalysis wedevise several concentration results forMarkovchains, including amaximal inequality for Markov chains, that may be of interest in their own right. As a byproduct of our analysis we also establish asymptotically optimal, finite-time guarantees for the case of multiple plays, and i.i.d.


Iterative Connecting Probability Estimation for Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Estimating the probabilities of connections between vertices in a random network using an observed adjacency matrix is an important task for network data analysis. Many existing estimation methods are based on certain assumptions on network structure, which limit their applicability in practice. Without making strong assumptions, we develop an iterative connecting probability estimation method based on neighborhood averaging. Starting at a random initial point or an existing estimate, our method iteratively updates the pairwise vertex distances, the sets of similar vertices, and connecting probabilities to improve the precision of the estimate. We propose a two-stage neighborhood selection procedure to achieve the trade-off between smoothness of the estimate and the ability to discover local structure. The tuning parameters can be selected by cross-validation. We establish desirable theoretical properties for our method, and further justify its superior performance by comparing with existing methods in simulation and real data analysis.


PDA-LSTM: Knowledge-driven page data arrangement based on LSTM for LCM supression in QLC 3D NAND flash memories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quarter level cell (QLC) 3D NAND flash memory is emerging as the predominant storage solution in the era of artificial intelligence. QLC 3D NAND flash stores 4 bit per cell to expand the storage density, resulting in narrower read margins. Constrained to read margins, QLC always suffers from lateral charge migration (LCM), which caused by non-uniform charge density across adjacent memory cells. To suppress charge density gap between cells, there are some algorithm in form of intra-page data mapping such as WBVM, DVDS. However, we observe inter-page data arrangements also approach the suppression. Thus, we proposed an intelligent model PDA-LSTM to arrange intra-page data for LCM suppression, which is a physics-knowledge-driven neural network model. PDA-LSTM applies a long-short term memory (LSTM) neural network to compute a data arrangement probability matrix from input page data pattern. The arrangement is to minimize the global impacts derived from the LCM among wordlines. Since each page data can be arranged only once, we design a transformation from output matrix of LSTM network to non-repetitive sequence generation probability matrix to assist training process. The arranged data pattern can decrease the bit error rate (BER) during data retention. In addition, PDA-LSTM do not need extra flag bits to record data transport of 3D NAND flash compared with WBVM, DVDS. The experiment results show that the PDA-LSTM reduces the average BER by 80.4% compared with strategy without data arrangement, and by 18.4%, 15.2% compared respectively with WBVM and DVDS with code-length 64.


Learning to Attack: Uncovering Privacy Risks in Sequential Data Releases

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Privacy concerns have become increasingly critical in modern AI and data science applications, where sensitive information is collected, analyzed, and shared across diverse domains such as healthcare, finance, and mobility. While prior research has focused on protecting privacy in a single data release, many real-world systems operate under sequential or continuous data publishing, where the same or related data are released over time. Such sequential disclosures introduce new vulnerabilities, as temporal correlations across releases may enable adversaries to infer sensitive information that remains hidden in any individual release. In this paper, we investigate whether an attacker can compromise privacy in sequential data releases by exploiting dependencies between consecutive publications, even when each individual release satisfies standard privacy guarantees. To this end, we propose a novel attack model that captures these sequential dependencies by integrating a Hidden Markov Model with a reinforcement learning-based bi-directional inference mechanism. This enables the attacker to leverage both earlier and later observations in the sequence to infer private information. We instantiate our framework in the context of trajectory data, demonstrating how an adversary can recover sensitive locations from sequential mobility datasets. Extensive experiments on Geolife, Porto Taxi, and SynMob datasets show that our model consistently outperforms baseline approaches that treat each release independently. The results reveal a fundamental privacy risk inherent to sequential data publishing, where individually protected releases can collectively leak sensitive information when analyzed temporally. These findings underscore the need for new privacy-preserving frameworks that explicitly model temporal dependencies, such as time-aware differential privacy or sequential data obfuscation strategies.


Simultaneous estimation of connectivity and dimensionality in samples of networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

An overarching objective in contemporary statistical network analysis is extracting salient information from datasets consisting of multiple networks. To date, considerable attention has been devoted to node and network clustering, while comparatively less attention has been devoted to downstream connectivity estimation and parsimonious embedding dimension selection. Given a sample of potentially heterogeneous networks, this paper proposes a method to simultaneously estimate a latent matrix of connectivity probabilities and its embedding dimensionality or rank after first pre-estimating the number of communities and the node community memberships. The method is formulated as a convex optimization problem and solved using an alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm. We establish estimation error bounds under the Frobenius norm and nuclear norm for settings in which observable networks have blockmodel structure, even when node memberships are imperfectly recovered. When perfect membership recovery is possible and dimensionality is much smaller than the number of communities, the proposed method outperforms conventional averaging-based methods for estimating connectivity and dimensionality. Numerical studies empirically demonstrate the accuracy of our method across various scenarios. Additionally, analysis of a primate brain dataset demonstrates that posited connectivity is not necessarily full rank in practice, illustrating the need for flexible methodology.


Label Drop for Multi-Aspect Relation Modeling in Universal Information Extraction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Universal Information Extraction (UIE) has garnered significant attention due to its ability to address model explosion problems effectively. Extractive UIE can achieve strong performance using a relatively small model, making it widely adopted. Extractive UIEs generally rely on task instructions for different tasks, including single-target instructions and multiple-target instructions. Single-target instruction UIE enables the extraction of only one type of relation at a time, limiting its ability to model correlations between relations and thus restricting its capability to extract complex relations. While multiple-target instruction UIE allows for the extraction of multiple relations simultaneously, the inclusion of irrelevant relations introduces decision complexity and impacts extraction accuracy. Therefore, for multi-relation extraction, we propose LDNet, which incorporates multi-aspect relation modeling and a label drop mechanism. By assigning different relations to different levels for understanding and decision-making, we reduce decision confusion. Additionally, the label drop mechanism effectively mitigates the impact of irrelevant relations. Experiments show that LDNet outperforms or achieves competitive performance with state-of-the-art systems on 9 tasks, 33 datasets, in both single-modal and multi-modal, few-shot and zero-shot settings.\footnote{https://github.com/Lu-Yang666/LDNet}


Recurrent Neural Goodness-of-Fit Test for Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series data are crucial across diverse domains such as finance and healthcare, where accurate forecasting and decision-making rely on advanced modeling techniques. While generative models have shown great promise in capturing the intricate dynamics inherent in time series, evaluating their performance remains a major challenge. Traditional evaluation metrics fall short due to the temporal dependencies and potential high dimensionality of the features. In this paper, we propose the REcurrent NeurAL (RENAL) Goodness-of-Fit test, a novel and statistically rigorous framework for evaluating generative time series models. By leveraging recurrent neural networks, we transform the time series into conditionally independent data pairs, enabling the application of a chi-square-based goodness-of-fit test to the temporal dependencies within the data. This approach offers a robust, theoretically grounded solution for assessing the quality of generative models, particularly in settings with limited time sequences. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across both synthetic and real-world datasets, outperforming existing methods in terms of reliability and accuracy. Our method fills a critical gap in the evaluation of time series generative models, offering a tool that is both practical and adaptable to high-stakes applications.